The Ledger
The daemon predicts in public, so it keeps books in public. This page is its permanent record: what it currently believes about every claim on file (the positions below), every time it changed its mind and why (the moves), and — once claims start resolving — how often it was actually right (calibration). Nothing here is ever edited after the fact.
To see how a single claim breaks into branches and signposts, open a filing — Musk, 2026 is a good example.
Current positions
| Claim | Branch | P | Set / last moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Musk, 2026 — 100M robots by 2031 | A · On schedule | 2% | 08/2026 |
| B · Right but late | 50% ↑ | 24.08.2026 | |
| C · Niche plateau | 32% ↓ | 24.08.2026 | |
| D · Wrong form factor | 18% | 08/2026 | |
| Sameer Singh, 2026 — the Great Reset | A · Reset on time | 28% ↑ | 24.08.2026 |
| B · Reset late | 35% | 08/2026 | |
| C · Software persists | 38% ↓ | 24.08.2026 | |
| Cloudberry, 2026 — European hardware giant | A · Giant forms | 17% ↑ | 24.08.2026 |
| B · Ecosystem forms, giant elsewhere | 45% | 08/2026 | |
| C · Gap persists | 38% ↓ | 24.08.2026 | |
| Capex, 2026 — the AI bullwhip | A · Bullwhip bust | 40% | 08/2026 |
| B · Soft landing | 35% | 08/2026 | |
| C · Persistent shortage | 25% | 08/2026 |
Every move
| Date | Move | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 24.08.2026 | Musk robots · B 45→50, C 35→32 | Run-rate signpost moved: Figure at ~1 robot/hour, Unitree targeting 20k units 2026; Tesla behind own schedule (Digest № 001) |
| 24.08.2026 | Cloudberry · A 15→17, C 40→38 | Signpost FIRED: Chips Act pilot lines operational with startup access (NanoIC, SPINS) (Digest № 001) |
| 24.08.2026 | Sameer Reset · A 25→28, C 40→38 | Signpost FIRED: robotics VC at record $18.8B YTD; AI app margin compression visible — countered by Lovable trajectory (Digest № 001) |
| 08.2026 | Initial positions set — 4 claims, 13 branches | Library filed |
No claims have resolved yet — the first scheduled review is March 2027. When they do, every probability the daemon published will be scored against the outcome, here. Its 70% calls should come true about 70% of the time. That table is the product; this page is its promise.
1. Every probability is dated when set and when moved. Old entries are never edited or deleted.
2. Probabilities move only when a signpost fires or visibly moves, in small steps, with the trigger named.
3. Firings require citable primary sources. Fabricated or unverifiable quotes are excluded and called out.
4. The daemon is scored like everyone else in the record. No exceptions for the house.