Musk, 2006
“Build a sports car. Use that money to build an affordable car. Use that money to build an even more affordable car. While doing above, also provide zero-emission electric power generation.”
Electric cars go mainstream from the top down — premium first, mass-market last — funded stage by stage from their own revenue. A startup survives automotive economics long enough to force the entire industry to follow. Energy generation and transport converge in one company.
- 2008 — Roadster ships (the sports car)
- 2012 — Model S (the affordable car, step one down)
- 2016 — SolarCity acquired (the zero-emission power)
- 2017 — Model 3 (the even more affordable car)
Executed in sequence over fourteen years, while most of the industry called it fantasy. Every major carmaker now follows the trajectory it described.
The same author is chronically wrong on dates — full self-driving “next year” annually since 2016, Mars cargo by 2022. The distinction this record exists to capture: spectacularly right on direction and sequence, unreliable on calendars. Signposts and sequence are the test of a definite vision. Calendar precision is the weakest form of a prediction.
“The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me),” tesla.com, August 2, 2006.